The Five Shocks
Vacancy +5pts, rent -10%, taxes +15%, rates +100bps, and a $5–10K one-time repair event. Apply each individually, then all together.
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The Survival Score
What % of baseline cash flow survives the compound worst case? Deals with > 70% are resilient; under 30% are speculative.
Decision Framework
Reject deals that go negative under any single shock. Question deals that go negative under compound shock. Only buy deals that stay positive at +5pts vacancy and -10% rent simultaneously.