CalculateRealEstateROI

Risk

Recession Playbook

Pre-defined actions to take when leading indicators (DOM, supply, employment) signal cycle late stage.

Reviewed by Keiron Brown, Founder & Editor, CalculateRealEstateROI · Educational estimates only — not investment, financial, tax, or legal advice

Core concepts

Tighten underwriting

Raise required DSCR, lower max LTV, increase reserves.

Harvest opportunistically

Sell late-cycle peaks; redeploy in recovery markets.

Operational fortify

Lock leases longer, build cash, defer non-essential capex.

Examples

  • 2022 sell-down of Phoenix peak SFRs; 2024 redeployment into Midwest recovery.

Practical applications

  • Multi-cycle operators.
  • Late-cycle portfolio audits.

Common mistakes

  • Reacting after the data is obvious.
  • Confusing national headlines with local cycle.