In-house studies on markets, cash flow, appreciation, portfolio construction and wealth building.
Cash Flow2026-Q2
Sun Belt Cash Flow Outlook 2026
Cap-rate expansion across the Sun Belt has restored deal-level cash flow for the first time since 2019, but insurance volatility continues to redraw the underwriting picture.
- Median going-in cap rates across our 24-market panel rose 90 bps year over year.
- Florida and Louisiana insurance is now the single largest line-item driver of NOI variance.
- Texas property-tax appeals are returning 4–7% NOI uplift on properties acquired in 2022–2023.
Methodology: We aggregate market-level inputs across 24 MSAs, recompute NOI with refreshed insurance and tax assumptions, and rank cash-flow durability using the Risk-Adjusted Return methodology.
Appreciation2026-Q1
U.S. Appreciation Leaders: The Decade Ahead
A forward look at which metros are positioned to outperform on price growth through 2035, weighted by population, job, and migration fundamentals.
- Population growth + job growth explains 71% of 10-year appreciation variance across our panel.
- Texas Triangle and Carolinas hold the highest forward appreciation potential.
- Coastal supply-constrained metros retain pricing power despite affordability headwinds.
Methodology: Forecasts are built from the Market Cycle Methodology, blending price-index trajectory with a phase-specific drag factor when risk indicators exceed 60.
Portfolio2026-Q2
BRRRR Feasibility in a Higher-Rate Regime
Refinance economics for BRRRR investors compressed materially after 2023. We rebuild the model around 7%+ debt to identify which markets and price points still pencil.
- ARV-to-all-in ratios below 0.78 no longer return investor capital in 75% of markets.
- Sub-$200k value-add product in OH, IN, MO, AL, OK remains the most consistent BRRRR lane.
- Refi-then-hold sequencing beats refi-immediately strategies on 10-year IRR.
Methodology: Inputs from the BRRRR calculator are run against 24 MSAs at three rate scenarios (6.5%, 7.25%, 8%) and three rehab quality tiers.
Portfolio2026-Q1
Portfolio Construction for the 2026 Investor
The classic 'buy in your backyard' portfolio has underperformed diversified, multi-market portfolios on every risk-adjusted measure we track since 2018.
- Portfolios spanning ≥3 MSAs show 28% lower drawdown variance than single-market portfolios.
- Cash-flow-only portfolios trail diversified portfolios on 10-year net worth growth by ~22%.
- A 60/30/10 split (cash flow / appreciation / value-add) maximizes our Portfolio Quality Score.
Methodology: Synthetic portfolios are constructed against the Portfolio Benchmarking Methodology archetypes and stress-tested using the Wealth Building Engine.
Wealth Building2026-Q2
The Real Estate Path to Generational Wealth
A long-horizon view of how disciplined operators compound real estate equity across decades, and where most investors stall.
- Three properties is the median 'stall' point — operators who pass it typically reach 10+ within 6 years.
- Reinvestment rate matters more than initial capital — operators who reinvest 50%+ outpace 2× starting capital with 20% reinvestment.
- Investor Maturity progression correlates 0.81 with 10-year net-worth outcomes in our cohort.
Methodology: Behavioral findings combine cohort analysis from the Wealth Engine and the Investor Maturity Model.
Markets2026-Q1
Short-Term Rental Saturation Index
Airbnb supply has caught up with demand in most leisure markets. We rank where pricing power remains and where occupancy collapse is most likely.
- Active-listing growth has outpaced demand growth in 18 of 24 panel markets.
- Urban arbitrage markets show the steepest revenue-per-listing decline.
- Regulated markets (NYC, Honolulu, parts of FL) now favor operators with existing permits.
Methodology: Combines the Airbnb Profit Calculator with regional supply trend overlays and the Market Cycle Methodology.